Business news live – Banks bet on interest rate cut and UK bills rise 8% in a year

Last week Goldman Sachs said they think a rate cut is in the offing, and now Barclays have joined them.

Noting that “shop price data point to further disinflation in October”, Barclays analysts have suggested the Bank of England’s MPC members will provide a split vote – they predict 5-4 – but the ultimate outcome will be a cut.

“We acknowledge the decision remains finely balanced, but expect the recent downside inflation and labour market news to tip the vote to a cut,” read the analysis note, from Jack Meaning and Silvia Ardagna.

Food inflation is a key tipping point in the vote, they predict, and it appears to be on the way down (disinflation).

Rewind the tape a few weeks and banks, economists and analysts were unified in their belief: no interest rate cut pre-Budget, quite possibly none for the rest of 2025.

However, inflation data for September changed all that.

We didn’t hit 4% as expected, and now the worst is expected to have passed.

On the back of that, jobs data came in weaker again too as companies continued to reign in the hiring and vacancies were down to a multi-year low.

Now, more than one bank has changed its tune.

Morning all and welcome to another week of your personal finance, UK business and stock markets news on The Independent.

We’ll start today with interest rates talk ahead of the MPC meeting, which comes on Thursday.