German conservatives lead election with far-right AfD in second place, exit polls show

BERLIN — Alternative for Germany, a far-right political party under surveillance by intelligence services for suspected extremism, made huge gains in the country’s general election Sunday, with the center-right Christian Democratic Union likely to lead coalition talks to form the next government.

The AfD, whose supporters include Elon Musk and others in the White House, is in second place with 19.8% of the vote, according to an exit poll published at 6:21 p.m. local time (12:21 p.m. ET). The CDU led the poll on 28.7%, meaning its leader Friedrich Merz will lead negotiations with other parties to form the next government.

Merz has ruled out working with the AfD, which doubled its vote total from last time. He and others have vowed to uphold the “firewall” prohibiting cooperation with the far right, an attempt to prevent a return to Germany’s Nazi past.

The current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, appeared to have been voted out of office after his Social Democratic Party came third with 16.4%, according to the exit poll.

This early indicator is usually accurate, and should be largely confirmed as the actual results trickle in overnight. When the results dropped, a group of around 200 demonstrators outside the AfD’s election night party in northern Berlin fired up a deafening  “catastrophe siren,” that was built in the 1960s to warn of nuclear attack or natural disasters. This time its operators said they were heralding a democratic crisis.

Then tense backdrop signaled the stakes of an election centered on immigration, economic stagnation and Ukraine, as Germany braces for a contentious coalition-building process.

The vote is unusually dramatic for Europe’s most populous country, a place that normally prides itself on having routine, unfussy ballots. That’s been upended this time by a series of high–profile attacks by people with migrant backgrounds, creating a heated atmosphere on which the far-right Alternative for Germany party is seeking to capitalize.

The pot has further been stirred by the Trump administration’s voluble support for the AfD, shocking for many of the party’s opponents in a country still deeply wary of its Nazi past.

Two hours before the exit poll dropped, approximately 100 demonstrators boarded a train in Berlin heading to the AfD election party in the northern city suburb of Wittenau.

They were accompanied by three dozen police officers, and upon arrival, a larger police presence established a perimeter around the venue to prevent clashes.

Some protesters held signs labelling the AfD as “Nazis.” 

“It kind of speaks for itself,” said Jenny, 32, a bank worker holding the cardboard sign who declined to give her last name. “This party is so dangerous; they are not just right-wing but fascist,” she added. “That’s why it’s important to protect our democracy.”

Under the leadership of Alice Weidel, the AfD has achieved its strongest showing in its 12-year history, with exit polls indicating a historic result.

Economy, immigration and Ukraine

As well as migration, the other driving factor behind this election is the economy. Though once seen as Europe’s industrial powerhouse, Germany’s economy has stagnated and now teeters on the brink of recession. To revive it, the CDU and AfD want to cut taxes and public spending, while the SPD and Greens would rather deploy investment subsidies and tax rises for high earners.

The other major schism is Ukraine, with most parties backing the continued support of the country fighting against Russia, but the AfD favoring withdrawing this backing and improving ties with Russia. They are just one of several far-right parties gaining support in Europe that wants a closer relationship with the Kremlin.

Germany has a semi-proportional voting system, making it difficult for any one party to win outright. Instead, they must work together to form coalition governments, usually led by the largest party. These can take weeks and even months.

So even though the polls close at 6 p.m. local time (noon ET), at which point an exit poll should give an accurate idea of the result, what that means in practice will likely take far longer to emerge.