Unews World
The Super Bowl is the biggest sports betting event of the year, with more than $1.3 billion expected to be legally wagered in the 38 states that offer it and Washington, D.C.
While betting on the spread between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles is enticing enough, there are dozens of other options for those wagering on the big game. NBC Sports is happy to help make sense of the madness.
The following guide — compiled by Vaughn Dalzell, Brad Thomas and Brian Hamilton — contains everything bettors need to make informed decisions including game odds, a breakdown of each team’s playmakers and how to bet their props.
Who is favored to win Super Bowl LIX? (odds via DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs (-120) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+100)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Total: 48.5
Betting the Chiefs on the moneyline at -125 means you are betting Kansas City will win outright. If you bet $10 on the Chiefs and they do win, your payout from DraftKings would be $18. Conversely, $10 bet on the Eagles at +105 odds earns a payout of $20.50 should Philadelphia win.
The spread means the Chiefs are favored to win by at least 1.5 points. If you are betting either the Chiefs or the Eagles to cover the spread, a $10 bet earns you a payout of $19.09 should your team cover those 1.5 points.
Betting the total means you are not concerned with who wins, but just how many points the teams combine to score. The total is set at 48.5. You must decide whether the Eagles and Chiefs will combine to go over or under that number.
NBC Sports’ Drew Dinsick says you should take the Eagles against the spread or moneyline (if daring).
“All my numbers point to the Eagles being able to run the ball all day against this Chiefs’ defense. Not only has Saquon Barkley been strong to start games, but he finishes them even better. Philadelphia’s offensive line combined with the power of Barkley will wear down the Chiefs’ defense as it has teams all season long,” Dinsick said.
How did the Chiefs and the Eagles Get to Super Bowl LIX?
This is a rematch of the 2023 Super Bowl, when the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35.
After finishing the 2024 regular season with a league-best 15-2 record, Kansas City knocked off the Houston Texans (23-14) in the divisional round of the playoffs and followed it up with a win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (32-29) in the AFC championship.
The Philadelphia Eagles had a 14-3 regular season record and followed this with playoff wins in the wild card round over the Green Bay Packers (22-10), in the divisional round over the Los Angeles Rams (28-22) and in the NFC championship against the Washington Commanders (55-23).
Best bets when the Eagles are on offense
QB Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-110)
Hurts was able to combine for seven touchdowns in three playoff games this season with zero turnovers. The biggest negative takeaway from those three games was the 11 sacks taken, including seven against the Rams. That is a big reason why Hurts went 2-1 to the under on his passing yards and attempts props.
However, Hurts was a moneymaker in the anytime touchdown market, and that’s the way we suggest betting on him (-110). He has four rushing touchdowns in his last two games and had three in the Super Bowl loss to Kansas City in 2022.
Hurts has also scored a rushing touchdown in five of his eight playoff games, while going 6-2 on “under 1.5 passing touchdowns” in those games. We like Hurts to get in the end zone via his legs at -110 odds.
RB Saquon Barkley over 21.5 rushing attempts and 110.5 rushing yards
The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, only allowing 70.4 yards per game on the ground. Barkley, though, has gone over 120 rushing yards in nine of his 19 games, including three of his last five. He’s also had at least 22 carries in 11 of the 19 games this season.
We like him to go over his rushing attempts and yards on Sunday.
WR A.J. Brown over 4.5 receptions and over 70+ receiving yards
Brown is the primary receiving option in this passing attack. He has 67 receptions on 97 targets. His receiving prop is set at 70.5 yards, 5 yards lower than his season average of 74.9.
The Chiefs do a good job of limiting the outside threats, with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likely scheming to eliminate the rushing threat of Barkley and making Hurts have to beat them through the air. This could be a pathway for Brown to go over his receiving yards and reception numbers.
WR Devonta Smith over 4.5 receptions
While Smith may be the secondary option in the passing attack, he had more receptions on the season than Brown. His 50-yard receiving total may be sneaky. He averages 59.6 receiving yards per game, but with crisp route running in the middle of the field, he could be a reliable target throughout the game.
TE Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions and over 50.5 receiving yards
Goedert is the tertiary option, but he’s also a great option in this game. His receiving yards number is 50, and he averages 52.6 yards per game. The Chiefs give up 70 receiving yards per game, the most to the tight end position in the NFL. Goedert going over 4.5 receptions and 50.5 receiving yards in this game would not surprise us at all.
Kicker Jake Elliott over 1.5 field goals
Elliot didn’t make a field goal in the NFC championship. However, before that game, he had gone six straight with at least two makes. The Chiefs have a tremendous red zone defense, only allowing touchdowns on 53.95% of red zone trips this season.
Best bets when the Chiefs are on offense
QB Patrick Mahomes over 29.5 rushing yards and anytime touchdown (+310)
Mahomes is looking for the three-peat championship against the team he started the run against. He has been active with his legs, and because of that, his 29-plus rushing yards is one of the most popular bets. Mahomes is coming off his first multi-rushing touchdown game of his career. He has recorded at least 29 yards in every Super Bowl appearance.
Look at the Chiefs QB to throw “under” 0.5 interceptions. This prop hasn’t failed in two months, so why stop now? Philadelphia is +10 in the turnover department in three playoff games. No question Mahomes will be mindful of that.
RB Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+140), under 43.5 rushing yards, and under 11.5 rushing attempts
Hunt took over the workload when Isiah Pacheco went down with an injury (and even since his return). He carried the ball 17 times against Buffalo in the AFC title game for 64 yards and a touchdown to follow up 44 yards on eight carries and a score against Houston.
Despite the tough matchup with the Eagles’ front seven, we would take a stab on Hunt’s anytime touchdown odds at +140. Hunt has scored in four consecutive games and posted nine rushing touchdowns on the year. The rushing yards and attempts props are too sharp to bet, but if forced to make a play, lean toward the under on both.
TE Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions and over 61.5 receiving yards
Kelce exploded for 119 yards against the Texans but was quiet against Buffalo (19 yards). In the last two Super Bowls, he had 81 yards and 93 yards on six and nine receptions, respectively, so it’s hard to argue taking the over on both.
Don’t ignore his touchdown odds at +140 or two-touchdown odds, which have dropped to +700. Kelce has scored in two of four Super Bowls and three of four career games against Philadelphia.
WR Hollywood Brown anytime touchdown (+270)
Brown has only played in four games this season but has been productive with 12 receptions on 22 targets for 126 yards. In three of four games, Brown has caught a pass for 17 or more yards and finished between 35 and 46 yards in those contests.
The best way to play Brown is for him to score his first touchdown of the season at +270 odds or the over on his 18.5 longest reception. Those are the only two ways Brown impacts this game. It’s doubtful he goes out for five-plus receptions and 50-plus yards.
Kicker Harrison Butker over 1.5 field goals
Butker has made at least two field goals in two of four Super Bowls. He is a perfect 4-of-4 in the playoffs this year and 36-40 (90%) in the postseason in his career. There’s the question of whether the Chiefs will be in position to kick at least two field goals. However, will Kansas City be allowed to settle for field goals?
With a game total set at 48.5, the expectation is that the Chiefs will score 24-25 points. That equates to one field goal and three extra points. Butker has been extremely clutch in the playoffs (6-for-7 from 50+ yards) but we’re not sure he gets enough opportunities in this game. We lean to over 1.5 field goals.
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