The Republicans who bucked Trump on his big bill: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Tuesday and welcome to the second half of the year. In today’s edition, we take a closer look at the three Republican senators who broke ranks and voted against the “big, beautiful bill.” Plus, with Zohran Mamdani’s Democratic primary win now official, Steve Kornacki looks ahead to a unique general election for mayor in New York City.

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— Adam Wollner

Breaking down the GOP ‘no’ votes on Trump’s big bill

By the skin of their teeth, Senate Republicans managed to pass President Donald Trump’s big domestic policy bill after a whirlwind past few days that featured a “vote-a-rama” session that stretched on for more than 26 hours.

They had exactly three votes to spare, and ultimately, that’s how many Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., lost, with Vice President JD Vance on hand to break the tie. And each of those three Republican senators who voted “no” found themselves in a unique political position compared to the rest of the conference.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has long been opposed to the “big, beautiful bill” because of the price tag (the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected it would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years). But unlike his fellow libertarian-minded Kentucky Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, who has consistently voted against the legislation, Paul has not incurred the full-blown wrath of Trump.

Sure, he’s been the target of a Truth Social post or two. But while Trump has threatened Massie with a GOP primary challenge next year, he has invited Paul to join him on the golf course. And unlike Massie, Paul doesn’t have to worry about running for re-election until 2028.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R.-N.C., meanwhile, has been on the receiving end of Trump’s wrath in recent days — to the extent that after he announced his opposition to the bill over the weekend, he decided to forgo his 2026 re-election race.

Free from the political pressures that would have come with potentially having to fend off a MAGA-inspired primary challenger and navigating a general election in a battleground state, Tillis has since let loose on the legislation, specifically for cutting Medicaid.

“What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off Medicaid?” Tillis said in a fiery floor speech Sunday evening.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has been known to buck Trump at times. But as the lone Republican senator who represents a state Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 election, Trump has generally avoided giving her a hard time about it.

Facing re-election next year in an environment that will likely favor Democrats, Collins had a difficult decision to make on the bill. Voting for the bill would have given her something concrete to campaign, particularly the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. But ultimately, like Tillis, the cuts to social safety programs were too much for her to overcome.

“My difficulties with the bill go far beyond what they could resolve,” Collins said after spending the past few days negotiating with GOP leaders.

Next steps: The legislation now heads back to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will (again) aim to steer it through his narrow majority before it can go to Trump for his signature.

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Related:

Mamdani shifts to an unsettled general election contest for NYC mayor

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The outcome was apparent a week ago, and now the magnitude is known: State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 12 points in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.

The margin reflects the reallocation of votes from other candidates through the ranked choice system used by the city, which announced the results this afternoon. The question now is what effect it will have on the general election playing field. Many civic and business leaders have expressed alarm at the rise of Mamdani, a self-described socialist, but they’ve reached no consensus on a path forward since the initial count last week.

All eyes remain on Cuomo, who has the option of continuing his candidacy on the ballot line of a party he established earlier this year. (In New York City, candidates are permitted to run multiple ballot lines.) But the scale of his defeat has diminished his stature. Opponents of Mamdani have shown little interest in uniting behind Cuomo since he finished second in the initial count last week, and nothing in today’s ranked choice results will ease their skepticism.

There has been some notable warming from the “Stop Mamdani” crowd to current Mayor Eric Adams, who bypassed the Democratic primary to wage his own independent general election bid. In winning the Democratic nomination four years ago, Adams leaned on strong support from Black voters, a group that Mamdani lagged badly with in this year’s primary. Theoretically, Adams could combine strong Black support with a broader anti-Mamdani coalition to make the November race competitive.

But if Cuomo remains in the race, he would threaten to split the anti-Mamdani vote. The presence of Republican Curtis Sliwa figures to do the same. And another independent candidate, former federal prosecutor Jim Walden, could further slice up the pie.

The problem for all of these non-Mamdani candidates is that none can make a definitive case for the others to drop out and unite. An Emerson College poll in May found that Cuomo was viewed favorably by just 41% of all New York City voters, compared to 47% who view him unfavorably. For Adams, who avoided prosecution on federal corruption charges at the behest of the Trump administration, the numbers were even worse: 19% favorable, 68% unfavorable. Mamdani, who surged in the final month of polling, was not tested.

That leaves Mamdani in an enviable spot at the moment. In a city that is overwhelmingly Democratic, he will run on the party’s line in November. He’s also expected to be offered the line for the left-wing Working Families Party, which has its own resources to throw into his effort.

In many ways, Mamdani is still an unknown commodity. His past statements and pronouncements are just coming to light now and his agenda is facing more scrutiny than it did during the primary. Whether this stirs a backlash that could actually threaten him in November remains to be seen.

But he can take solace too: Even if he’s toting some serious baggage this fall, he won’t be the only one.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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